Greek Debt Relief Deal Likely in Coming Months, Eurasia Says
(Bloomberg) -- A deal on debt relief for Greece may be reached by May as the IMF has made it clear it won’t lend Greece more money without it and is aware North European parliaments won’t disburse any monies unless the IMF is on board, Mujtaba Rahman, analyst at Eurasia writes in client note.
- April 22 Eurogroup is probably too soon for a debt relief agreement but an earnest political discussion will begin, followed by a deal in May
- Expect a “classic European fudge” with the Eurogroup granting more debt relief than the Commission and ECB’s fiscal estimates suggest is needed, but less than what the IMF wants
- The Greek government will then be asked to deliver the rest in the form of additional reforms
- The refugee crisis, terrorism, and the U.K’s June “Brexit” referendum may focus minds in the Eurogroup as ministers will likely to want to conclude the review before the U.K. vote takes place and refugee flows increase again in the summer when Greece has to roll over EU3.5b of maturing debt
- See 30% chance of early elections
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HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
Tickers 2539Z GR (European Central Bank)
1004Z GA (Hellenic Republic)
People Mujtaba Rahman (Eurasia Group)
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