U.K. ’Brexit’ Vote Less Likely If EU Refugee Deal Succeeds: JPM
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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David Mackie (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Allan Monks (JP Morgan Chase)
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(Bloomberg) -- The likelihood of the U.K. voting to leave the EU in June may fall if last Friday’s deal between the EU and Turkey helps to stem the flow of migrants, JPMorgan analyst David Mackie writes in client note.
Alert: HALISTER1- Managing migration is a key issue in the ’Brexit’ debate, and the EU migrant crisis has created two concerns as it has cast doubt on the region’s ability to come up with a regional response to the crisis; and second, it has reinforced the concern about the region’s ability to control its borders
- An easing of the migrant crisis would reduce both concerns
- The deal does though face enormous logistical as well as legal challenges, and puts great pressure on Greece to establish a sizable and functioning asylum processing regime
- A vote to leave may trigger a Tory leadership challenge, calls for snap general election and stronger rhetoric on a second Scottish referendum, JPMorgan analyst Allan Monks writes in a separate note
- NOTE: U.K. welfare minister’s resignation underscores tensions within the ruling party ahead of the June vote; adds to bearish drivers for sterling, analysts say
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
David Mackie (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Allan Monks (JP Morgan Chase)
To de-activate this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283