Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- “With the greater-than-expected drop in the median fed funds forecasts, the front-end should continue to stay bid, and the market will find it harder in the near-term to get short, absent an indication of an imminent hike,” BMO strategist Aaron Kohli says in note.

• “Not only did Yellen seem not terribly concerned about the heating up of core inflation, she seemed to play down the strength in core that we have seen so far,” which “should favor steepeners for the time being once the impulse of the Fed’s dot-plot has passed”
• Other observations from strategist morning notes:
• CRT (David Ader): “Surprise tone from the Fed (as evidenced by the market’s reaction) won’t have a lasting impact because while they certainly diminished the hiking agenda’s pace, we see the change in fed funds projections as the Fed catching up with the market versus the other way around”
  • “Rates going into the Fed were at recent highs, suggesting the data had nothing to do with it”
• FTN (Jim Vogel): Rest of this month “will reward nimble investors who can catch the bond market leaning the wrong way”
• Marty Mitchell (independent): “Corrective oversold bounce in Treasuries that we have been expecting has now commenced after the 10yr traded to 2.00% and the Fed helped the buyers to establish the near-term floor there”

(Bloomberg) -- BOE bank rate est. 0.5% vs prev 0.5%.

• BOE asset purchase target est. GBP375b vs prev GBP375b
• Bank publishes minutes of the meeting showing how each Monetary Policy Committee member voted at the same time
• NOTE: Bank of England Has Nowhere to Go With ‘Brexit’ in Limelight
• NOTE: BOE Watchers to Focus on Minutes for Policy-Easing Hints: Chart

(Bloomberg) -- The BOE will simultaneously publish its rate decision and minutes at noon London time. Key questions include: HOW SPLIT WAS THE VOTE?

• Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect an 9-0 vote to leave rates unchanged
• While domestic data has been weaker, few think it has deteriorated sufficiently for the most dovish rate-setters Andy Haldane and Gertjan Vlieghe to vote for a rate cut

WHAT THE MINUTES SAY ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE NEXT RATE MOVE?

• Vlieghe’s comment to parliament that he has relatively little tolerance for further downside surprises has added to the market view that the chance of a rate cut is on the rise
• Many commentators expect a more dovish set of minutes but the extent of any shift in language on the future direction of rates or on the flatness of the curve will be key

WHAT DOES THE BANK SAY ABOUT STERLING WEAKNESS AND INFLATION?

• Ian McCafferty and Martin Weale have both suggested that the weakening in sterling could become inflationary
• Any further mention this month would likely be seen as hawkish given market expectations of a rate rise have been pushed out past 2018, and as the fall reflects concerns about the U.K.’s growth outlook and Brexit risks

WHAT DID THE MPC SAY ABOUT BREXIT?

• While FPC member Clara Furse has said any significant uncertainty is likely to create disruption, a view echoed by the OBR, the BOE has been understandably reluctant to be drawn into discussing the June referendum in any detail
• Governor Mark Carney told a parliament committee there are risks from remaining in the EU and risks relating to the development of the euro area

ANY FURTHER INSIGHT ON WHY WAGE GROWTH REMAINS MUTED AND THE OUTLOOK?

• The BOE’s staff has said the flattening in nominal pay growth could reflect short-term volatility in the data, changes in the mix of employment or be the result of low headline inflation
• The BOE has said April is a key for wage data as around 40% of salary negotiations take place then, and this year the new “Living Wage’’ will be introduced in the same month
• Comment on the faster-than-expected rise in wage growth in January, another key month for wage talks, or on the likelihood of further strengthening will also be in focus