Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- (Corrects frequency of BOJ’s outlook to quarterly from semi-annual in lead and first bullet.) BOJ may continue to monitor impact of negative rates on Japan’s economy until April when it releases its quarterly economic outlook, before it potentially expands stimulus further, Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty writes.

• BOJ Gov. Kuroda said earlier this month that he’s not considering lowering negative interest rates further at this time; however, central bank’s quarterly economic outlook could support the case for additional QQE if growth and CPI forecasts are lowered
• Recent data indicate a weak economy: Jan. overall household spending and retail sales continue to drop on y/y basis; 4Q capex growth slowed to 8.5% y/y from 11.2% in 3Q; Jan. headline inflation stayed at 0.0% y/y while CPI excluding food and energy declined to 0.7% y/y from 0.8% in Dec.
• A stronger yen also reduces imported price pressure, which could create headwinds for BOJ to achieve its 2% CPI goal and may spur a shift in its policy stance in near future
• BOJ is forecast to leave the annual rise in monetary base at JPY80t, according to 35 of 40 economists in Bloomberg survey with 4 predicting an increase to JPY90t and one projecting an increase to JPY100t; decision due tomorrow
• Policy rate is expected to remain at -0.1%, according to 38 of 40 economists in another Bloomberg survey with two predicting a decline to -0.3%
• NOTE: David Finnerty is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- A roundup of debt rating changes of Indian cos. To get this story sent to your inbox in real-time, run NI INRATINGS , click on Display & Edit, then Set Alert Delivery. DOWNGRADES:

• Alam Tannery
  • Long-term loan facilities cut to D from B+ at Crisil
  • Cites instances of devolvement of co’s letters of credit due to stretched liquidity

• Dhroov Resorts
  • LT bank facilities cut to D from B at Care
  • Cites ongoing delays in servicing of debt obligations

• Four Star International
  • LT loan facilities cut to BB- from BB at Crisil
  • Cites deterioration in group’s financial flexibility and liquidity with continued increase in investments

• Furnace Fabrica
  • LT loan facilities cut to BBB from BBB+ at Crisil
  • Cites subdued capex scenario in oil and steel sectors in domestic, international mkts

• Hans Industries
  • Cash credit cut to B+ from BB at ICRA
  • Cites continuous fall in steel prices

• Jagannath Textile
  • LT loan facilities cut to D from B- at Crisil
  • Cites overdrawn working capital facilities, delays in meeting principal obligation on term loans

• Jindal Steel & Power
  • LT bank facilities cut to D from BB+ at Care; NCDs also cut to D from BB+
  • Cites delays in debt servicing

• Lingaya’s Society
  • LT loan facilities cut to D from B at Crisil
  • Cites recent delays in servicing term loan

• M.E. Infra Projects
  • LT loan facilities cut to BB+ from BBB- at Crisil
  • Cites weaker-than-expected performance due to slow pace of contract execution, stretch in working capital cycle

• Sai Wardha Power
  • LT bank facilities cut to BB+ from BBB- at Care
  • Cites significant decline in operational performance

• Unichem Trading
  • LT loan facilities cut to D from BB at Crisil
  • Cites delays in servicing term loan

UPGRADES:

• Agropure Capital Foods
  • LT bank facilities revised to BB+ from BB at Care
  • Cites significant increase in scale of operations

• Birbhum Chemicals
  • LT bank facilities revised to A- from BBB+ at Care
  • Cites consistent increase in scale of operations

• Pallishree
  • LT bank facilities revised to A- from BBB+ at Care
  • Cites consistent increase in scale of operations

• R.S. Triveni Foods
  • LT bank facilities revised to BB+ from BB at Care
  • Cites significant increase in scale of operations, improved capital structure

(Bloomberg) -- Nation to ask Congress to strengthen Anti-Money Laundering Act, Philippine SEC Chairman Teresita Herbosa tells reporters in Manila.

• Probe won’t end until we’ve recovered accounts: Herbosa
• Fight against money laundering is a global effort
• NOTE: Philippines Prepares Charges in Bangladesh Bank Acct Case: WSJ Link
• NOTE: $1 Billion Plot to Rob Fed Accounts Leads to Manila Casinos Link
• NOTE: Bangladesh Finance Minister Vows Action Against Central Bank Link

(Bloomberg) -- Yen steady against dollar; Japan’s core machine orders increased 15% from month earlier in January, the most in data going back to April 2005; median estimate was for 1.9% increase.

• Kiwi set to snap two-day rally; falling inflation expectations are a concern and should expectations fall further, Reserve Bank of New Zealand needs to re-think interest-rate outlook, central bank says; it isn’t a mystery that central bank cut rates last week, New Zealand Herald cites Governor Wheeler as saying
  • Economists see annual average growth at 2.6% in year through March 2017 versus 2.5% projected in December and inflation at 0.4% in first quarter compared with 1.3%, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research says
• Aussie rises; ruling coalition leads Labor by 53% to 47% on two-party preferred measure, the latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll in the Australian Financial Review shows, up from 52% to 48% in the same poll in February
• Offshore yuan weakens; People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan says major stimulus isn’t needed to support growth; State Council is expected to review expanding VAT reform plan to more industries, Economic Information Daily reports
• Rupee’s one-month forwards steady; India’s wholesale prices may have fallen 0.19% in February from year earlier following 0.90% slide in January, according to Bloomberg survey before data today; consumer prices increase 5.52% after climbing 5.69% in January, a separate survey shows
• U.S. Treasuries rise; with yield on 10-year bonds declining 1 bp to 1.977%
• Rupiah advances; Bank Indonesia sees $1.1b trade surplus in February, Investor Daily Indonesia reports, citing Juda Agung, executive director of monetary policy

(Bloomberg) -- Anti-Money Laundering Council preparing charges against no. of people allegedly involved in illegal transfer of money from a Bangladesh Bank account at Federal Reserve Bank of New York to no. of Philippine accounts, WSJ reports, citing council Chairman Amando Tetangco.

• Declined to identify those who may be charged
• Said more details would be revealed during Senate hearings on March 15
• NOTE: $1 Billion Plot to Rob Fed Accounts Leads to Manila Casinos

(Bloomberg) -- BOJ may continue to monitor impact of negative rates on Japan’s economy until April when it releases its semi-annual economic outlook, before it potentially expands stimulus further, Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty writes.

• BOJ Gov. Kuroda said earlier this month that he’s not considering lowering negative interest rates further at this time; however, central bank’s semi-annual economic outlook could support the case for additional QQE if growth and CPI forecasts are lowered
• Recent data indicate a weak economy: Jan. overall household spending and retail sales continue to drop on y/y basis; 4Q capex growth slowed to 8.5% y/y from 11.2% in 3Q; Jan. headline inflation stayed at 0.0% y/y while CPI excluding food and energy declined to 0.7% y/y from 0.8% in Dec.
• A stronger yen also reduces imported price pressure, which could create headwinds for BOJ to achieve its 2% CPI goal and may spur a shift in its policy stance in near future
• BOJ is forecast to leave the annual rise in monetary base at JPY80t, according to 35 of 40 economists in Bloomberg survey with 4 predicting an increase to JPY90t and one projecting an increase to JPY100t; decision due tomorrow
• Policy rate is expected to remain at -0.1%, according to 38 of 40 economists in another Bloomberg survey with two predicting a decline to -0.3%
• NOTE: David Finnerty is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- Ringgit snaps two-day rally; Ministry of Finance Secretary General Irwan Serigar Abdullah to become new head of Bank Negara Malaysia, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing an unidentified banker familiar with the matter.

• Irwan responds by saying “he doesn’t know”: Star newspaper
• MYR is likely to be the best-performing currency in Asia this year if global oil prices continue to recover, Capital Economics writes in recent note; sees USD/MYR ending 2016 at 4.00
• Ringgit falls 0.1% to 4.0925 per dollar, according to onshore prices
• USD/MYR approaching 4.0750 pivot line, which has supported pair for past seven months; click here for chart
• Yield on 3.955% govt bond due Sept. 2025 fell 2 bps last week to 3.888%
• Five-year credit-protection costs on nation declined by 11 bps last week to 154 bps, lowest in seven months, according to CMA New York data

--DOMINIC LAU