HALISTER1: CHINA PREVIEW: Feb. Industrial Output Seen Growing Less Than 6%

CHINA PREVIEW: Feb. Industrial Output Seen Growing Less Than 6%

(Bloomberg) -- China’s Feb. industrial production due tomorrow may slow further as recent factory PMI data suggests continued deterioration in manufacturing activities, Bloomberg analysis shows.
  • Industrial production data due 1.30pm local time on March 12; probably fell to 5.6% from 6.1% in Jan., according to median estimate in Bloomberg survey; range of ests. from 5.4% to 10.7%
  • Feb. manufacturing PMI at 49.0, matching lowest level seen in Nov. 2011
    • Correlation between industrial output and manufacturing PMI is at 0.703 in past six years; see trend of two here
  • Offshore yuan little changed at 6.5053 per dollar
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: AUD/NZD May Have 2009 Flashback If RBNZ Cuts Below RBA: Charts

AUD/NZD May Have 2009 Flashback If RBNZ Cuts Below RBA: Charts

(Bloomberg) -- AUD/NZD could move into higher trading range if analysts expectations of more rate cuts in New Zealand are correct, Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield writes.
  • The last time RBNZ cut rates faster than RBA was 2009; click here to see chart
    • AUD/NZD was trading in 1.20s; click here to see chart
    • Then, in 3Q 2009, RBA started raising its cash rate, taking it 175 bps above RBNZ’s by end-2010; AUD/NZD advance peaked just below 1.3800 in March 2011
  • AUD/NZD seen at 1.1290 in 4Q 2016 using median forecasts from analysts contributing to Bloomberg survey; cross is up 4.8% this year to 1.1172
  • NOTE: Mark Cranfield is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: JPMorgan Said to Cut Credit Traders Amid Emerging-Market Swings

JPMorgan Said to Cut Credit Traders Amid Emerging-Market Swings

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
JPM US (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
BAC US (Bank of America Corp)
8604 JP (Nomura Holdings Inc)

People
Augusto Pinto (Bear Stearns & Co Inc)
Brian Marchiony (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Daniel Steeds (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
David Matty (JP Morgan Securities LLC)
Elie Pano (JPMorgan Chase Bank NA)

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UUID: 7947283