HALISTER: Glencore to Vale Showing Interest in Argentina, Minister Says

Glencore to Vale Showing Interest in Argentina, Minister Says

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
GLEN LN (Glencore PLC)
VALE5 BZ (Vale SA)

People
Mauricio MacRi (Argentine Republic)
Brent Bergeron (Goldcorp Inc)
Carlos Menem (Province Of La Rioja)
Murilo Ferreira (Vale SA)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Given ECB Past Form, Credit Mkts Right to Be Cautious: Analysis

Given ECB Past Form, Credit Mkts Right to Be Cautious: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Such is the extent of expectation surrounding tomorrow’s ECB decision and the magnitude of the additional stimulus that many investors are hoping for, that there is a risk that the corporate credit mkt will be left wanting, again, writes Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard.
  • Indeed, some investors argue that risk assets may struggle to produce meaningful positive reaction to anything less than an aspirational 20bps cut in the ECB deposit rate and EU20bn increase in the monthly asset-purchase program
    • Given ECB’s past form of promising all but then failing to deliver, there are concerns that history may repeat itself this week
  • Risk-market sentiment, going into the ECB, appears to have shifted in recent sessions; mkt tone also weaker on renewed macro concerns stemming from China
    • Credit mkt previously seemed to be approaching ECB decision with an optimistic, bullish stance, with ECB expected to deliver further monetary accommodation
    • The mkt now adopting a more defensive bias based on concerns that ECB announcements will fall short of stimulus expectations
    • As sentiment has eased pre-ECB, iTraxx Europe has retraced from Tuesday low of 89.75 to latest 91.32; EUR HY cash index has widened ~4bps to 529
    • Eonia currently pricing 100% probability of ECB cutting deposit rate by ~12bps; ~23bps cut priced by Dec. 2016
  • EUR credit mkt has been in broad spread tightening trend from mid-February wides, but easing off a little this week ahead of ECB
  • Credit-mkt volumes likely to stay muted ahead of ECB meeting, with limited scope for primary mkt to add liquidity
    • Combination of overhanging global macro uncertainty, commodity price fluctuations and potential for ECB to disappoint may leave investors with a defensive bias as we head toward Easter
  • NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER: Yankees Network Ramps Up Comcast Fight as Baseball Season Nears

Yankees Network Ramps Up Comcast Fight as Baseball Season Nears

Alert: HALISTER
Source: BN (Bloomberg News)

Tickers
CMCSA US (Comcast Corp)
TWC US (Time Warner Cable Inc)
FOXA US (Twenty-First Century Fox Inc)
3276470Z US (Hulu LLC)
NFLX US (Netflix Inc)

People
George Steinbrenner (New York Yankees Partnership)
John Demming (Comcast Corp)
Keith Murdoch (Twenty-First Century Fox Inc)
Tracy Dolgin (Yankee Global Enterprises LLC)

Topics
Major League Baseball, x-Stats
New York Yankees

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: BCB PREVIEW: Brazil Minutes Seen Flagging Selic Rate on Hold

BCB PREVIEW: Brazil Minutes Seen Flagging Selic Rate on Hold

(Bloomberg) -- Despite increasing market bets on a cut, central bank minutes from the March 2 policy meeting should continue to signal that the Selic rate will be left unchanged, according to analysts.
  • Bank is likely to keep benchmark rates for the short term to assure a better result in the fight against inflation, Cristiano Oliveira, chief-economist at Banco Fibra, says
    • “BCB statement was similar to that of prior meeting. The minutes will also be similar”
  • Bellow-est. CPI released today isn’t enough for BCB to change its signal for a cut in the short term; local and external uncertainties justify stable rates
    • Room for cuts may appear in 2H, when the policy may start focusing on 2017, where CPI forecasts are closer to 4.5% target than those of 2016; recovering BRL also may help BCB decide
  • NOTE: DI Swap rates dropped on CPI and after Valor reported that some BCB directors have discussed rates cuts; DI curve prices in Selic rate cut, with bigger odds of easing in the 2nd half
  • Basic scenario is still for rates to remain stable and BCB may keep a cautious stance in an effort to bring inflation under control because its target is still ’’challenging,’’ Leonardo Sapienza, chief-economist of Banco Votorantim, says
  • Bradesco chief-economist Octavio de Barros said BCB may cut the rate cut sooner than forecast if inflation is slightly below seasonal level in coming months
  • NOTE: BCB releases minutes on Thursday, 8:30am local time; Copom last week kept Selic at 14.25% with two dissenting directors voting for a 50bps hike
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Cristiano Oliveira (Banco Fibra SA)
Leonardo Sapienza (Banco Votorantim SA)
Octavio De Barros (Banco Bradesco SA)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Latvian Bank Regulator Fines Baltic International Bank EU1.1M

Latvian Bank Regulator Fines Baltic International Bank EU1.1M

(Bloomberg) -- Latvian lender fined for previous violations of anti-money laundering and terrorism finance law discovered after Financial and Capital Market Commission conducted examination, according to e-mailed statement.
  • BIB Chairwoman Ilona Gulcaka fined EU25,000
  • Regulator declined to use maximum level of fine as bank is currently fulfilling all regulatory rules and has improved internal control systems
  • NOTE: BIB is Latvia’s 12th biggest bank by assets
  • NOTE: Fine can be challenged in administrative court
  • NOTE: Scandal-Hit Baltic Bank Shut by ECB as Watchdog Vows Cleanup
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
1047866D LR (Baltic International Bank AS)

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UUID: 7947283