Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- “While certainly not definitive, the early signs that market might be returning to trade off the fundamentals vs. central bank largess (or the potential to lose it) hold promise as we approach Wednesday’s ADP and of course Friday’s more relevant BLS employment report,” CRT strategist David Ader says in note.

• Other observations from strategist morning notes:
• BMO (Aaron Kohli): “FOMC has adopted wait-and-see view on this next meeting, even though the economy is likely capable of handling additional tightening at this time,” and a “consequence is that the front-end of the curve is going to be cautious before pricing additional Fed action”
• Marty Mitchell (independent): “While the short-term momentum studies are at oversold extremes and suggestive of a near-term bounce, the longer-term studies are at neutral readings and have more room to run to reach oversold extremes,” so “it is prudent to be cautious down here because we could see the yield ranges extend to the upside”

(Bloomberg) -- “Put-heavy trading in TY options” yday was “sufficient to push our Option Sentiment Indicator to a buy signal,” Credit Suisse strategist William Marshall said in March 1 report.

• Last time OSI reached a buy signal was on Dec. 3 and 10s “rallied 9bp over the subsequent two days”
• Historically, 10Y yield rallied 63.6% of the time in 2 days after OSI moved to buy, richening by 7.4bps on average

(Bloomberg) -- “A renewed effort” is required by governments and international bodies, Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan says at Rome conference.

• International fight against money laundering at turning point
• Italy on forefront in countering terrorism