Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah and Thailand’s baht advance, while South Korea’s won and Malaysia’s ringgit reverse earlier gains; sovereign bonds rise in Australia and interest-rate swaps decline in Singapore.

• Yen rallies for fourth day, hitting strongest level since October 2014; Japan’s currency chief Masatsugu Asakawa says authorities are watching for speculative moves; local markets closed for public holiday
• Ringgit weakens; Malaysia’s industrial production grew 2.7% in December from a year earlier, beating median estimate for 1.0% gain; Prime Minister Najib says he reminded ministers at first cabinet meeting of the year to spend prudently, according to official blog posting
• Baht strengthens; Bank of Thailand will manage baht volatility, governor says; central bank maintains 3.5% GDP growth forecast for 2016
• Kiwi slips versus dollar; Moody’s says it is comfortable with New Zealand’s Aaa rating, stable outlook
  • Home sales rose 4.3% in January from year earlier
  • Manufacturing index advanced to 15-month high of 57.9 in January
  • One-year ahead inflation expectations fell to 1.4% in January from 2% in October, according to Aon Hewitt quarterly economist survey
• U.S. Treasury futures rise to 131-24 from 131-16 yesterday; Fed’s Yellen says interest-rate increases might be delayed by recent financial market turmoil
• Aussie gains against dollar; Australian Prudential Regulation Authority Chairman Wayne Byres says credit spread increases are “manageable”
• Rupiah strengthens for fifth day; job cuts in Indonesia’s banking industry may continue this year, though less severe than in 2015, Jakarta Post reports; country’s growth to stabilize as economy has adapted to lower commodity prices and policy has turned more accommodative, Moody’s says
• Peso little changed; Philippine central bank will keep policy rate unchanged at 4% today, according to all 14 economists in Bloomberg survey
• Markets are still shut in China and Taiwan for public holidays; China to allow individual yuan-forex derivatives trading, Xinhua News Agency reports

CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

• Click here to see pivot point and multiple support as well as resistance points for majors/Asian currencies

(To subscribe to EU Credit Daily, click here and set alert via ‘"Display & Edit’’) By Simon Ballard (Bloomberg) -- Credit markets appear to remain in consolidation phase, after Janet Yellen treaded a fine line in her testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. A dovish Fed should support risk appetite, while a cautious macro outlook may feed a continued net widening bias in lower-quality risk assets as investors focus on challenges facing credit fundamentals, Bloomberg strategist Simon Ballard writes.

• The credit mkt’s attempt to rally on Wed. back from earlier wides was soon faded, highlighting the absence of buying conviction even after recent selloff
  • Mkt interpretation of the Fed’s tightening path on one hand, and the “negative rates” debate on the other, will be key balancing act in positioning credit portfolios in coming mos.
  • Uncertain macro outlook, commodity-price volatility and the weight of Fed policy hanging over financial risk assets may leave many corp credit investors fearing that any credit mkt stability/rebounds may be short-lived
• Risk Appetite Model highlights rise in volatility, even as spread dispersion recedes
• CDX IG currently +2.1bps at 120.94 in overnight session; iTraxx Asia Ex Japan IG currently +8.7bps at 172.52

NEWS

• Corporate News
• Nokia Earnings Top Estimates as Mobile Carriers Expand Networks
• Glencore 4Q Copper Output Falls; Announces Franco Streaming Deal
• Total’s Quarterly Profit Beats Estimates on Oil Output, Refining
• Rio FY15 Profit In Line With Est., Dividend Unchanged From 2014
• Pernod 1H Profit Recurring Ops. 2% Below Analysts’ Estimates
• Publicis 2015 Revenue Beats; Modest Organic Growth Seen in 2016
• Woolworths Profit Climbs as Food, David Jones Revenue Increase
• Alcatel-Lucent 4Q Sales, Adj. Op. Income Beat Ests.
• Metro 1Q Ebit Ex-Items Misses Est.; Debt Cut, Outlook Reiterated

• Financial News
• SocGen Fourth-Quarter Profit Misses Estimates on Legal Provision
• Zurich Insurance Quarterly Loss Misses Estimates on Claims
• Union Bank 3Q Net Income Falls 74% Y/y, Misses Est.
• Natixis Increases Bonus Pool by 4%, Mignon Says

• Rating News
• Indonesia’s Growth to Stabilize, Vulnerabilities Remain: Moody’s
• Suncorp Group Rtgs Unaffected By Weaker 1H: S&P
• Moody’s Comfortable With New Zealand Aaa Rating, Stable Outlook

• Other News
• U.S. 10-Year Yield Near One-Year Low as Stocks Drive Safety Bid
• World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Gets Political Pushback in Asset Bid
• Oil Extends Loss From 3-Week Low Amid Record Cushing Supplies

ANALYST VIEWS

• Broadening risk-off and recent increased focus on credit concerns come at a time when markets are increasingly questioning the efficacy of monetary easing: CS
• Session was more than likely a dead-cat-bounce; next stage might well take in some calmer climes before we resume some sort of slide lower: creditmarketdaily.com

NEW ISSUES

• PRICED: EIB EU250m 1.25% 11/2026 Green Bond Tap MS -12
• PRICED: LBBW EU250m 0.375% 1/2019 Tap MS +48
• PRICED: Goldman Sachs EU1.25b 12/2017 FRN 3mE +70
• PRICED: Bpifrance Financement EU500m 5Y FRTR +23
• PRICED: CA Immobilien EU150m 2.75% 7Y Bonds at Par
• European IG credit pipeline here and HY credit pipeline here
• Issuers exposed to S-T rollover and interest-rate reset risk here

• NOTE: Simon Ballard is a credit strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

(Bloomberg) -- Div. Bloomberg forecast EU0.61/share.

• 2015 production 2.347mboe/d vs est. 2.343mboe/d
• To cut organic capex by ~$16b in 2016; to reduce European refining capacity by 20% by end-2016
• Call 2:30pm U.K., +1 212 444 0896, pw:3406579
• NOTE: Co.’s 4Q European refining margin indicator $38.1/t; see Bloomberg Industries take on 4Q downstream

(Bloomberg) -- Publicis 2015 organic growth +1.5%; 4Q organic growth +2.8%; says performance boosted by acquisitions, FX, and 4Q turned out better than expected.

• 2016 to be year of transition, modest organic growth expected; will focus on building foundations to “fire on all cyclinders” in 2017
• Says North America performance quite satisfactory in 4Q, with organic growth of +6.3%
• Organic growth of digital activities reached 8.8% in 4Q
• Says 2015 free cash flow rose 31% to more than EU1b for 1st time in co.’s history
• 2015 rev. up 32.3% to EU9.6b vs est. EU9.5b
• 2015 net income up 25.1% to EU901m vs est. EU883.9m
• Div. up 33.3% to EU1.6; BDVD forecast EU1.5
• 2015 operating margin up 25.8% to EU1.5b; % operating margin 15.5%
• 2015 headline diluted EPS up 20.6% to EU4.39
• Outlook: co. expects all financial indicators to increase in 2016: revenue, operating margin, adj. EPS, dividend payout
  • Says reorganization underway, exposure to digital activities (52% of 2015 rev.) will bolster future growth, continue to improve margins
• NOTE preview published yday here