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(Bloomberg) -- U.S. July light vehicle sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) estimated to be 17m vs 17.9m y/y. Automakers are expected to have shown greater restraint with incentives, analysts say, citing channel checks. Most automakers report monthly sales Tuesday pre-market.

• See Bloomberg estimate chart
• GM supply chain; Ford supply chain; FCAU supply chain
  • Bloomberg Intelligence primers for GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler
  • BI credit primers for GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler
• 2Q results for GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler

ANALYST COMMENTARY

• Goldman Sachs (David Tamberrino): Says GS’s SAAR forecast implies a continued softer y/y selling environment in the U.S., driven by fleet pull-back as well as softness in retail SAAR; pace of sales was consistent throughout the month and did not see a large bump from July 4 sales events, as per GS channel checks
  • Sees more subdued growth in incentives; average transaction prices tracking flat y/y, down $860/vehicle sequentially, largely to due weaker pickup truck mix month-to- date
• Barclays (Brian Johnson): Now expects SAAR to be more of an "eroding plateau"; assuming a more cautious outlook on U.S. light vehicle sales
  • Sees "normalized" level of demand in ~15.5m-16m range, with higher demand from population growth more than offset by more disciplined incentive activity from automakers, lower fleet sales to rental companies, and new mobility models hurting vehicle density
• JPMorgan (Ryan Brinkman): Notes July SAAR estimates are the "hardest to gauge" as seasonal factors are not released by Bureau of Economic Analysis prior to sales reporting day, unlike for other months
  • Channel mix expected to track stronger on a y/y basis, with softness in SAAR attributable to lower fleet sales; retail sales down only slightly on a y/y basis
• RBC (Joseph Spak): Forecasts 2017 demand to be 17.1m units, which implies an acceleration from the 1H; says much of the weakness has been due to weak fleet sales, while retail is slightly better; expects the trend to continue; believes automakers will look to right-size inventories over the coming months through downtime

ESTIMATES

• Big 3 ests.:
  • GM: -8%
  • Ford: -5.5%
  • Fiat Chrysler: -6.1%
• Other ests.:
  • Toyota: -3.8%
  • Honda: -3.6%
  • Nissan: -3.3%
  • Hyundai/Kia: -12%
  • Volkswagen/Audi: -2.8%

RELATED:

• Earlier, Model 3’s Buzz Belies U.S. Market Barely Getting a Lift From EVs
• Earlier, Auto Sales to Drop for Fourth Month: J.D. Power-LMC Automotive
• July 28, Goodyear Results Show Industry Dynamics ‘Deteriorated’: Deutsche
• July 21, Autos Gloom Deepens Amid Autoliv Results, EU Antitrust Problems

--With assistance from Jamie Butters. To contact the reporter on this story: Esha Dey in New York at edey@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Arie Shapira at ashapira3@bloomberg.net Brad Olesen