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(Bloomberg) -- Brazil Central Bank’s quarterly inflation report forecasts are consistent with a continuation of the easing cycle, towards the 8.5%/8.0% neighborhood by year-end, says Itau BBA in a report signed by chief economist Mario Mesquita.

• Report refers to the signaling of deceleration, presented in the latest policy meeting statement and minutes, in the past tense, indicating that the next Copom decision is officially open between a 75bps and a 100bps move, Itau says
• Given the forecasts and the heightened uncertainty in the scenario, Itau sticks to the view that the Copom will cut Selic rate by 75bps in July, although it notes that the decision will be data dependent
• NOTE: Uncertainty Weighs on Brazil Economy and Rates: Central Bank
• NOTE: BCB Report Allows Lower Target, Leaves Rate in Doubt: Analysts

To contact the reporter on this story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Danielle Chaves

--DEREK WALLBANK

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s U.S. economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• LEI 0.3% m/m; range 0.2% to 0.5% (32 estimates)
• • "The closely-watched coincident-to-lagging ratio has trended lower in recent years, suggesting a softer pace of expansion": Bloomberg Intelligence
  • In April, the LEI rose 0.3 percent, the same as March; the index last declined in August

(Bloomberg) -- Report surprised with figures lower than expected by market, especially for 2019, due in part to updated forecast model, which now includes climate issues, said Luis Otavio Leal, Banco ABC’s chief economist, in a telephone interview.

• Main message is the probability of changing the inflation target to 4.25%
• Interest rate should remain at 8.5% at the end of the cycle because it converges with the target reduction
• Regarding the speed of rate cuts, the report reinforced Brazil Central Bank’s last meeting minutes, which signaled that it’s likely to be a slow down in June
  • Despite the disinflationary surprises that we had between the minutes and the inflation report, a deceleration would be appropriate
• NOTE: Brazil Central Bank Says Uncertainty Weighs on Economy and Rates

Original Story: Banco ABC: RTI aumenta chance de corte da meta inflação p/ 4,25% To contact the translator on this story: Danielle Chaves in Sao Paulo at djelmayer@bloomberg.net Reporter on the original story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net Editors responsible for the original story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Patricia Xavier