Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- If Electoral Court acquits Temer, the president will have won a battle, but not the war, returning to the day-to-day politics weaker, with several flanks in its base of support and vulnerable to a cycle of heavy investigation and news, says Joao Augusto de Castro Neves, Eurasia Group Director for Brazil, in an interview with Bloomberg. See main points:

• Temer will not be the "phoenix coming out of the ashes" if it survives the Electoral Court; Will not be strengthened to the point of rescuing support he had before the crisis
• He will face heavy investigations, focusing on PMDB parliamentarians who gravitate around him
• Streets are still secondary variables; Who will determine the future of Temer are the economic, political and legal elites
• Coalition will not be consolidated; Some parties have left and do not come back
  • Best scenario for reforms would be Temer’s rapid fall by Electoral Court decision, with indirect election of a new president who could conduct reforms
• Worse scenario would be the fall of Temer postponed for a long time, for example with Electoral Court postponing decision, and the president surviving in a very different level from the previous one and without being able to approve Social Security reform

Original Story: Eurasia: Temer não volta como Fênix mesmo que vença no TSE To contact the translator on this story: Ney Hayashi in Sao Paulo at ncruz4@bloomberg.net Reporters on the original story: Marisa Castellani in Sao Paulo at mcastellani7@bloomberg.net; Josue Leonel in Sao Paulo at jleonel@bloomberg.net Editor responsible for the original story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net

--STEVEN CRABILL

--DEREK WALLBANK

--DEREK WALLBANK