Aussie Slumps After RBA Signals It’s Not Ready to Hike: Roundup
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
David Forrester (Credit Agricole SA)
Jarrod Kerr (Commonwealth Bank of Australia)
Ray Attrill (National Australia Bank Ltd)
Simon Pianfetti (SMBC Trust Bank Ltd)
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UUID: 7947283
(Bloomberg) -- Aussie fell for a fourth day after the central bank signaled it would keep interest rates at a record low for an extended period.
- RBA left the cash rate at 1.5%, saying “some indicators of conditions in the labor market have softened recently”
- AUD/USD dropped 0.5% to 0.7568 after falling to 0.7562, weakest since March 15; 200-DMA support at 0.7551; 100-DMA support at 0.7509
- Australia’s 10-year bond yield declines 7bps to 2.61%
- Swaps traders see 9% odds policy makers will cut rates by year-end vs 5% Monday
- RBA Governor Lowe will speak at an RBA board dinner in Melbourne at 7:15pm local time
- Credit Agricole (David Forrester, G-10 FX strategist at firm’s corporate and investment-banking unit)
- RBA has given its strongest indication yet it’s unlikely to raise rates to cool the Melbourne and Sydney property markets
- The board strongly implies it’s up to banks and Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to ensure financial stability with respect to bank lending to the housing market
- RBA statement does express some concern about a softer labor market
- Element of risk-off in markets also weighing on Australian dollar given weaker equities and slide in U.S. Treasury yields Monday
- National Australia Bank (Ray Attrill, global co-head of FX)
- RBA’s acknowledgment of a weaker labor market and its stress that macro-prudential restraints are needed to help the housing market provided an excuse to sell the Aussie
- RBA’s language on FX is unchanged from March, suggesting a strengthening currency would be unwelcome
- “No perceptible policy bias in the statement and no reason to think the RBA is going anywhere on policy anytime soon”
- RBA statement looks to contain a few “overs” and “unders” relative to March
- They have acknowledged the recent weakening in the labor market, while referencing more positive forward-looking indicators
- Concerns about housing market strength are more elevated but the RBA emphasizes the role of macro-prudential measures in dealing with this
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (Jarrod Kerr, interest-rate strategist)
- It’s a very neutral statement, but RBA is clearly concerned about developments is some areas of the housing market and the softness in the labor market persists
- Aussie set to extend decline against the U.S. currency, but hold well against currencies like euro and sterling
- Interest-rate diffentials with the U.S. to keep falling as the Fed hikes and the RBA holds
- SMBC Trust Bank (Simon Pianfetti, senior manager in market solutions department)
- RBA statement was balanced, as always
- “I would avoid being bearish AUD/USD, prefer long GBP/AUD”
- Aussie sold on two main negative points of employment and housing
- “They could have sounded more dovish, especially on housing”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
David Forrester (Credit Agricole SA)
Jarrod Kerr (Commonwealth Bank of Australia)
Ray Attrill (National Australia Bank Ltd)
Simon Pianfetti (SMBC Trust Bank Ltd)
To de-activate this alert, click here
To modify this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283