HALISTER1: U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Chicago PMI Due in 5 Minutes

U.S. ECO PREVIEW: Chicago PMI Due in 5 Minutes

  • Chicago PM 56.9; range 55 to 60.1 (33 estimates)
    • "The headline has exhibited resilience to recent dollar strength, having not fallen below 50 since February 2016": Bloomberg Intelligence

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: JPM Initiates UST Long-End Curve Steepener Ahead of Auctions

JPM Initiates UST Long-End Curve Steepener Ahead of Auctions

(Bloomberg) -- Recommend level-neutral 7s30s steepener given historical long-end underperformance into bond auctions, JPM strategist Jay Barry says in a note.
  • Ahead of past 6 30Y auctions, 7s30s curve has steepened as much as 2.2bp on average, with the pre-auction steepening occurring before 5 of the last 6 auctions
  • Curve looks “modestly too flat” vs medium-term inflation expectations and variable annuity hedging requirements
  • Trade expressed via buying 81% risk 2.125% Mar24 vs selling 100% risk 3% Feb47
  • NOTE: U.S. to auction 30Y bonds on April 12

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Jay Barry (JPMorgan Chase & Co)

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UUID: 7947283