Brazil’s Economic Recovery Not Yet Perceived as Broad, Says BoFA
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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UUID: 7947283
(Bloomberg) -- “Top down indicators are moving higher (confidence and activity), but given the unprecedented nature of this recession, recovery may be bumpy and not follow historical norms” leading to “less apparent” broad economic recovery, according to a report signed by Felipe Hirai and Nicole Inui.
- “The question most often asked by investors is the timing of Brazil’s economic recovery”
- “We sifted through bottom-up data from traffic on toll roads to the number of overdrawn checks in the banking system, all of which could provide early signs of a recovery”
- “The good news is that none of these indicators are deteriorating and a few, such as industrial energy demand, seem to be rebounding and improving, consistent with an initial industrial recovery”
- “The consumer, however, remains weak with mall traffic and supermarket volumes still down”
- “Indicators, so far, are in line with BofAML Brazil Economist David Beker’s call that growth this year will be investment led, rather than consumer led”
- “Inconsistent indicators are usual during turnarounds. One could argue that in the second half of last year we had similar indicators pointing towards a recovery”
- “The key difference now is that the Central Bank is easing monetary policy and our economists still expect 400bps in cuts until early 2018”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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UUID: 7947283