Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s U.S. economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News:

• Initial Claims 240k; range 220k to 255k (47 estimates)
• Cont. Claims 2040k; range 2030k to 2050k (6 estimates)
• • "While weather-related disruptions may have distorted recent postings in the jobless claims data, the underlying trend is unmistakable: Demand for workers is strong, and employers have exhibited no desire to furlough staff": Bloomberg Intelligence
  • Initial jobless claims have been below 300,000 for 106 weeks in a row, the longest stretch in more than four decades

(Bloomberg) -- Newly created position includes responsibility for banking operations, asset management unit,“Open24 Service Centre”, anti-money laundering and “other key activities”, co. says in emailed statement.

• O’Sullivan was previously MD of co.’s asset-management unit

(Bloomberg) -- Gilt 2s10s curve could come under further bear-flattening pressure with long-term average line at 93bps cropping up on the radar as markets continue to recalibrate expectations for U.K. monetary policy, Bloomberg technical analyst Sejul Gokal writes.

• See live chart here; 2s10s now at 104bps
• 2s10s curve steepening has faltered right against 100-DMA resistance at 116bps, as a more hawkish tone from BOE, coupled with this week’s upside surprise in CPI and retail sales data, has led to a shift in market expectations toward tighter policy and consequently a flatter curve
  • Recalibration of rate expectations has led to a sharp underperformance in front-end of curve with 2-year yield rising as much as 12bps since low of March 16
• Interim curve support at 99bps (38.2% Fibonacci of August- December steepening phase, Feb. 24 low); deeper compression levels seen at 90bps (channel base, which drops 0.5bps a day), 82bps (Oct. 24 low) and 76bps (61.8% Fibonacci)
  • A steeping move above 118bps could, however, challenge the flattening technical bias
• GBP OIS forward markets show increasing bets on a rate hike by mid-2018. The implied odds of a 25bps increase by June 2018 have climbed to 77% (assuming 4bps Sonia-base rate corridor)

• NOTE: Sejul Gokal is a technical strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.

--ALAN KATZ

--PAUL GORDON