Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- After consultations with major market participants, trade group recommends Venezuelan and PDVSA bonds continue to trade with accrued interest, as opposed to flat. * EARLIER: Venezuela Is Seeking Debt Relief and Confusing Its Bondholders * NOTE: EMTA is the principal trade group for emerging-market trading * NOTE: Bonds that are in default typically trade flat, where they settle at a price that doesn’t consider an additional payment in respect of accrued interest To contact the reporter on this story: Katia Porzecanski in New York at kporzecansk1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Margaret Collins at mcollins45@bloomberg.net Brendan Walsh

(Bloomberg) -- The Fed can’t raise interest rates too much further before potentially slowing economic growth, Janus Henderson Group fund manager Bill Gross says on Bloomberg TV.

• Treasury yield curve from two to 10 years, currently at ~72bp, usually has to flatten to zero to signal a recession, but that may not be the case this time around, he says
• “In a highly levered economy with a lot of debt, and that typifies the U.S., we don’t have to go flat, perhaps another 20 to 30 basis points of tightening would be enough in order to induce certainly a slowdown in the economy”
• One scenario that could see the curve to flatten to his target would include the fed funds rate climbing another 50bp and the 10Y yield another 10bp, Gross says
• See earlier story: Bond Traders Pile Into Fed-Proof Bet as Trump’s Pick Nears

--With assistance from Tom Keene. To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Chappatta in New York at bchappatta1@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net Greg Chang

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Factory Orders 1.2% m/m; range 0.5% to 2.3% (50 estimates)
• Durables 2.1% m/m; range 0.2% to 2.2% (4 estimates)
• Recent strength in manufacturing “is a function of a weaker dollar and some expedited demand for goods amid the post- storm reconstruction effort”: Bloomberg Intelligence
• Ism Non-Manu 58.5; range 56 to 60.5 (71 estimates)
• In September, the ISM non- manufacturing advanced to 59.8, the highest since August 2005
• That "spike seems unsustainable” as services expanded in the third quarter at the slowest pace in four years: Bloomberg Intelligence

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Trade Balance -43.2b; range -45b to -40b (55 estimates)
• “The September trade report could imply revisions to 3Q GDP, as it is released after the advance GDP estimate”: Bloomberg Intelligence
• Preliminary data on September merchandise trade showed the deficit widened to $64.1 billion, the largest since May

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News.

• Nonfarm Payrolls 313k; range 120k to 400k (81 estimates)
• Private Payrolls 302k; range 105k to 390k (36 estimates)
• Manu Payrolls 15k; range 5k to 34k (19 estimates)
• Unemploy Rate 4.2%; range 4.1% to 4.4% (80 estimates)
• Hourly Earn 0.2% m/m; range -0.1% to 0.3% (58 estimates)
• Hourly Earn 2.7% y/y; range 2.4% to 2.8% (30 estimates)
• Avg. Weekly Hours 34.4; range 34.4 to 34.5 (28 estimates)
• Labor Force Part 63.1%; range 63% to 63.1% (3 estimates)
• “October’s ADP private employment growth will most certainly recover sharply from the hurricane impact, which weighed on private hiring in September”: Bloomberg Intelligence
• September non-farm payrolls suffered a net loss of 33,000, the first decline since September 2010, reflecting major disruptions from hurricanes

To contact the reporters on this story: Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net; Vincent Del Giudice in Denver at vdelgiudice@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net Kristy Scheuble