AUCTION PREVIEW: 10Y Bund Attractive Outright, Repo Supportive
(Bloomberg) -- Germany to tap 0.25% 02/2027 for EU3b at 11:30am CET, equivalent to around 21k bund futures.
- Analysts are optimistic about the sale given richness in repo ahead of quarter-end, attractive outright valuations
- Mizuho (Antoine Bouvet)
- Main attraction of this sale is outright valuation, with the 10Y yield having found support around the 0.50% level
- From an RV perspective, 10Y sector underperformance on the 5s10s15s butterfly has exceeded what its directionality would warrant
- Bond is attractive against swaps, given the likely large TLTRO support for cash bonds and likely elevation of EUR tail risks as we approach the French election
- Commerzbank (Christoph Rieger)
- Ahead of quarter-end, repo specials in the 10y basket have increased with some bonds quoted below -5% over the turn
- With yields closer to the upper end of the range, and most EGB spreads near the lower end of their range on the back of the TLTRO hype, the auction should be absorbed without larger hiccups
- ING (Martin van Vliet)
- Outright yield levels are testing upper end of this year’s trading range at 0.5%
- Recent ASW tightening has also pushed the z-spread of the DBR 02/2027 from below -50bp at the end of February to now around -42bps
- Repo market specialness suggest dealer demand in the auction should be supportive
Alert:
HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Christoph Rieger (Commerzbank AG)
Martin Van Vliet (ING Groep NV)
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