Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- U.K. Treasury Minister Simon Kirby tells lawmakers in House of Commons that officials will study allegations about U.K. banks to assess if investigation is warranted.

• “We’ll investigate closely” where “recent information” suggests it is needed, Kirby says
• Any probe would be led by Financial Conduct Authority, minister says
• “We’re determined to make Britain the most difficult place in the world for international crime networks to channel their finances”

NOTE: Laundered Russian Cash Went Through Big Banks, Guardian Says Link

(Bloomberg) -- Retail sales seen rising 1.5 percent in January after falling 0.5% in December (forecast range +0.3% to +2.7%); based on the value of goods sold.

• “Gasoline stations should provide a heavy tailwind

to retail sales as a whole, as rising wholesale gas prices are exacerbated by newly implemented carbon pricing plans in Ontario and Alberta:” TD Securities

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s U.S. economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News:

• Current Acct. $-129b; range $-131.4b to $-120b (30 estimates)
• Third quarter’s deficit of $112.96 billion was the smallest in a year; merchandise trade shortfall narrowed during the quarter; services surplus also narrowed
• • The current account tracks trade in goods, services, income and current transfers

(Bloomberg) -- Paul Manafort, who served on Donald Trump’s U.S presidential-election campaign, should be investigated for money laundering over $750,000 payment from ousted Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovych, Ukrainian lawmaker Serhiy Leshchenko says.

• While Manafort was paid for consulting services for Yanukovych, bank documents state the payment was made for the sale of 501 computers, Leshchenko tells reporters in Kiev
• Transaction was in October 2009 via Kyrgyzstan
• Manafort denies wrongdoing
• NOTE: Manafort Should Face Graft Probe, Ukrainian Lawmaker Says

(Bloomberg) -- ECB will announce allotment for the final 4-year T-LTRO II operation at 11:30am CET on March 23.

• Analysts expect the operation to result in receiving in 4y sector as banks swap to floating, which may also widen 3s6s basis in 4y-5y swaps; short-dated peripheral bonds expected to find support as carry trades are initiated with the funds
  • On Monday, the front-end of peripheral curves outperformed, led by 5y Spain and Italy, which were boosted by LTRO-driven carry demand, said traders
  • Following the previous LTRO-II operation, over EU1b of 4y EUR swap traded, as the sector gained, signaling heavy receiving in bucket
• ECB has already reported that EU16.74b of prior LTROs will be repaid
• Sponsorship for this operation is expected to be above the December level of EU62b, given this is the final operation and as banks will probably look to lock in cheap funding for the 4-year period
• Take-up estimates from analysts show a fairly wide range, from lows of EU30b to highs of EU360b; mean estimate is around 135b
• Rabo expects a gross take-up of EUR30b-35b
• SocGen sees around EU100b
• JPMorgan looks for EU70b with upside risks given the somewhat more hawkish than expected message from ECB and the rise in yields
• Barclays expects gross take-up of EU110b; says a much bigger amount is unlikely as the two main LTRO borrowers (Italian and Spanish banking systems) have already raised significant amounts of liquidity, which seems to be concentrated in the biggest banks
• ING expects around EU75b-100b, with risks skewed to a larger take-up as more banks lock in 4y funding costs at -40bp
• Commerzbank looks for just over EU100b, given balance sheet constraints, rising excess reserves
• Danske Bank anticipates a take-up of around EU250b, boosted by more clarity on the interest rate of the loan, final chance to grab liquidity, rising ECB hike expectation and with French banks concerned about political uncertainty
• NatWest Markets expect a jump to EU360b given this is the last opportunity; this number is only around 25% of the maximum possible drawdown from Euro banks (est. EU1.2t)