HALISTER1: Credit Suisse Moves Call for Next Fed Hike to March From June

Credit Suisse Moves Call for Next Fed Hike to March From June

(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse economists led by James Sweeney change their call for next Fed rate increase to March from June, yet say a move is “hardly assured”; they maintain expectation for three hikes between now and February 2018.
  • Three factors have changed likely path of U.S. rates: core inflation has risen more than expected, data have been consistent with strong global growth momentum, and Fed rhetoric is becoming increasingly hawkish
    • Factors that might avert a March hike include sluggish income growth and unremarkable real retail sales, industrial production and core PCE inflation
  • Market’s rising implied probability of a March hike “could be self-fulfilling” because it undercuts claims that Fed needs a meeting to prepare public for a move
  • CS doesn’t expect Yellen or Fischer on Friday to disavow recent hawkishness from Fed presidents
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
James Sweeney (Credit Suisse Group AG)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: DBRS: FNF Reports Lower Originations for Q4 2016; Higher Net Income on Back of Gains on Financial Instruments

DBRS: FNF Reports Lower Originations for Q4 2016; Higher Net Income on Back of Gains on Financial Instruments

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
FN CN (First National Financial Corp)

People
David Laterza (DBRS Inc)

Topics
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Fixed Income Research
Investment Research
Issuer Focused Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Senator Asks Treasury to Examine Trump Foreign Associates

Senator Asks Treasury to Examine Trump Foreign Associates

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: APW (Associated Press)

Tickers
1025701D US (Senate Committee on Banking Housing & Urban Affairs)

People
Donald Trump (United States of America)
Sherrod Brown (United States Senate)
Steven Mnuchin (United States of America)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: DBRS: National Bank Reports Strong 1Q17 Earnings; Asset Quality Improves

DBRS: National Bank Reports Strong 1Q17 Earnings; Asset Quality Improves

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

Tickers
NA CN (National Bank of Canada)

People
Peter Stavropoulos (DBRS Ltd)

Topics
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Earnings Review Research
Fixed Income Research
Fundamental Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Greystone Commercial Real Estate Notes 2017-FL1 - DBRS Presale Report

Greystone Commercial Real Estate Notes 2017-FL1 - DBRS Presale Report

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: DBR (Dominion Bond Rating Service)

People
Erin Stafford (Dbrs, Inc.)
Kevin Mammoser (DBRS Inc)

Topics
Credit Analysis Research
Credit Research
Fixed Income Research
Investment Research
Prov., Reg. Credit Research

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Morgan Stanley Now Sees March Fed Hike and Four Hikes in 2018

Morgan Stanley Now Sees March Fed Hike and Four Hikes in 2018

(Bloomberg) -- Financial conditions now easy enough to move forward with March hike; updated dollar projections alongside core PCE tracking call for three hikes in 2017 (vs two previous) and four in 2018 (vs three), Morgan Stanley economists led by Ellen Zentner write in note
  • USD forecast change sees 3% lower path, adding upwards pressure on GDP and inflation outlook and worth an additional Fed rate hike over 2017-2018
  • Net easing in financial conditions since December FOMC equates to ~75bp rate cut
  • Also raising PCE inflation est. to 2% from 1.9% over 2017 and 2018
  • Dudley’s comments that a rate hike has become more compelling “could not be ignored”
  • If hike in March also includes further upwards revision to 2017 median dot, see intermediates pressured, 2s5s steeper and 5s30s flatter; no revision to median dot may see overall yield curve steepen, strategist Matt Hornbach writes
  • Medium-term uncertainty, notably fiscal outlook “not enough to paralyze the FOMC and keep it from acting now”
  • Expect Fed to reduce SOMA portfolio once policy normalization “well under way,” or when the Fed funds rate is halfway to longer-term equilibrium 3% rate; “risks to an earlier drawdown have risen” and MBS reinvestments could come to an end in January 2018 vs original estimate for April 2018
  • NOTE: Morgan Stanley had seen next hike in September, see Feb. 15 story
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Ellen Zentner (Morgan Stanley)
Matthew Hornbach (Morgan Stanley)

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UUID: 7947283

HALISTER1: Matt Levine's Money Stuff: Subprime Dog Leasing and Bank Fines

Matt Levine's Money Stuff: Subprime Dog Leasing and Bank Fines

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BV (Bloomberg View)

People
David Kirkpatrick (Techonomy Media)
David McCormick (Bridgewater Associates LP)
Gregory Jensen (Bridgewater Associates LP)
Jim Chanos (Kynikos Associates LP)
Jonathan Rubinstein (Bridgewater Associates LP)

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UUID: 7947283