Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Following are forecasts for today’s U.S. economic releases as compiled by Bloomberg News:

• Existing Homes 5.55m; range 5.38m to 5.65m (74 estimates)
• Existing Homes 1.09% m/m; range -2% to 2.91% (74 estimates)
• Home re-sales have been "pressured" by the low number of properties on the market; January data could indicate whether higher mortgage rates are depressing demand: Bloomberg Intelligence
• In December, the number of previously owned homes on the market dropped to the lowest in records back to 1999, according to data from National Association of Realtors
• • Even so, 2016 re-sales were strongest in decade

(Bloomberg) -- OAT1 generic contract may fade today’s uptick given the bearish chart structure on daily time frame reflected by falling moving averages and negative momentum readings, Bloomberg technical analyst Sejul Gokal writes.

• See live chart here; OATH7 (March) now +16 ticks to 147.78
• Contract trades below the Sept. downtrend, the 26-day EMA and 55-DMA, which together help guide the downtrend and keep the focus lower
• MACD is recovering while below zero line; drift toward neutral line offers bears opportunity to re-join trend lower
• Feb. lows may come into focus in days ahead at 146.56, a scenario that falls in line with the medium-term bearish outlook
  • Medium-term support and objective seen at 144.86, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 2015-2016 rally
• A closing break above 149.41 would call into question the immediate downside prospect

• NOTE: Jan. 26, OAT futures are breaking critical support at 148.73
• NOTE: Sejul Gokal is a technical strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice

*MEXICO 4Q ECONOMY EXPANDS 2.4% FROM YEAR EARLIER QUARTER

(Bloomberg) -- Retail sales seen unchanged in December after increasing 0.2% in November (forecast range -0.4% to +0.6%); based on the value of goods sold.

• Canada’s economy “facing considerable headwinds that are likely to restrain CAD over the coming months,” says TD Securities, which sees sales rising 0.4%

(Bloomberg) -- Above-estimate mid-month CPI in February reduces the chance that the central bank willo adopt a more dovish stance, Newton Rosa, chief economist at Sul America Investimentos, says in a phone interview.

• BCB likely to keep pace of 75bps cuts and release statement with similar message to prior meeting; if inflation were more tame, BCB could keep the pace, while changing the statement to signal bigger cuts in the meetings ahead
  • Bets on a 100bps cut are likely to subside
• “The numbers shows that inflation is still alive and can’t be neglected”
• NOTE: Feb. IPCA-15 figure is the first to top estimates since July 2016

(Bloomberg) -- Says conducting a “comprehensive review” of options to accelerate delivery of value for shareholders

• Says review follows ‘events of last week’
• Expects review to be completed by early April
• Shares rise 2.1% in London
• Link to Statement