Aussie to Rally on If Green Shoots Found in Jobs Data: Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Aussie dollar may extend its rally if January jobs data reveals the fourth straight month of full-time employment gains and that more youths are finding work, Bloomberg strategist Michael G Wilson writes.
- Australia’s full time employment index may post its fourth consecutive gain on Thursday, matching the positive run seen in Sept. 2015 which saw the AUD climb about 2% over 4 months
- NAB business conditions survey on Feb. 14 saw the employment component soaring to its best level since 2011
- AUD/USD currently at 0.7657; initial test seen at 0.7778 Nov. 8 high; slow stochastic %K seen consolidating at or above 75 in February, suggesting bullish momentum intact
- AUD/NZD may revisit a series of declining highs that began at 1.0772 on Oct. 14; spot currently steady at 1.0701
- Slow stochastic in overbought territory at 91; broken trend-line resistance with support now at 1.0524 100-DMA
- Australia employment data due on Feb. 16 may show 10k jobs added in January following a 13.5k gain in December, according to median est. of 29 economists in Bloomberg survey
- Estimated range: -11k to +28k
- Unemployment rate seen steady at 5.8%
- December employment saw the sector for 15-24 year-olds register its first increase in three months
- Sector is constant source of frustration for govt; a second monthly increase in January would be reflective of a broadly improving theme
- Risks to the bullish Aussie view include:
- Narrowing Aussie/U.S. rate differential if Yellen, Dudley or Fischer reiterate the hawkish tone set by the Fed chair Tuesday following a possible strong U.S. CPI print Thursday
- Weak local jobs print that comes in the form of strong headline number built mainly on increase in part-time labor
- Under such outcome, immediate triple-top resistance near 0.7700 may hold
- NOTE: Michael Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.
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HALISTER1Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
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