HALISTER: Eros Sees Ebitda Trebling on Surge in Digital Users, China Plans

Eros Sees Ebitda Trebling on Surge in Digital Users, China Plans

(Bloomberg) -- Eros International, which was targeted by an anonymous short sellers last year, expects its Ebitda to at least triple in five years as it wins customers on the internet and in China, Chairman Kishore Lulla said in an interview Friday in Mumbai.
  • Sees total 150m registered users on ErosNow audio, video streaming service in 5 years, up from >37m on Dec. 31
    • Projects as many as 10% of total users paying for service in 5 years; to reach 1m paying users by fiscal year 2017: presentation dated Feb. 17
  • Expects ErosNow ARPU ~$20/year in India, $50 overseas, Lulla says
  • NOTE: Analysts project Ebitda will rise to $299m in FY19 from $69m in FY16: Bloomberg data
    • Eros shares in U.S. +51% YTD after -57% in 2015; short interest 23% of float: Bloomberg data
  • Plans to release 100 movies annually in next 3-5 years, up from ~60 currently: Lulla
  • Company plans to release “Bajirao Mastani” title on as many as 7,500 screens in China; sees $30m-$60m in gross revenue
    • NOTE: Movie grossed ~$50m in India, overseas ex-China
  • China JV producing two films approved by govt, expects to complete shooting of one in FY18
    • Eros also plans to introduce ErosNow in China with initial catalog of as many as 500 movies
  • Sees maintaining 36% market share in Indian movie distribution business; sees multiplex companies adding as many as 4,000 movie screens in next 5 years
  • Sees Trinity -- a unit formed to make franchise movies -- releasing first film in 1Q FY18
  • ErosNow to release first original movie on digital media in Oct.- Nov.; expects to double ErosNow movie catalog to 10,000 this year
  • Declines to comment on sale of ErosNow stake
    • NOTE: Last year, Eros Said in Talks to Sell Stake in ErosNow to Fullerton
  • Parent Eros International Plc exploring options to give shareholders of Indian-listed unit “a chance to participate” in U.S. company, Lulla says
  • Eros considering acquisitions, may target companies that distribute content digitally
  • Maintains annual capex plan of $250m-$300m
  • NOTE: Eros stock in India has fallen ~13% in the same period versus Sensex’s ~3.5% advance
RELATED:
  • Eros Says Solid Backing by Temasek to Counter Short Sellers
  • Eros Loses Investor Love Amid Questions on Sales, User Numbers
Alert: HALISTER
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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EROS US (Eros International PLC)
EROS IN (Eros International Media Ltd)

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Kishore Lulla (Eros International PLC)

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