HALISTER1: 10Y OATs Medium-Term Bullish Trend Not Over Yet, SocGen Says

10Y OATs Medium-Term Bullish Trend Not Over Yet, SocGen Says

(Bloomberg) -- OATs remain cheap vs bunds and should keep attracting strong domestic and Japanese interest in a yield-starved world, Societe Generale strategist Jamal Meliani writes in client note.
  • Buy June OAT future at 158.76, targeting 160.80 (33bp target), average at 158.10, stop below 157.50; carry + roll- down = 1.3bp/mo.
  • French fundamentals are starting to improve, thanks to the timid reforms enacted over the past few years
  • OATs have been the main vehicle for risk-averse and yield- starved investors looking to diversify in the long-end in the euro area but shunning low-yielding bunds
  • Risk: rating downgrade, but highly unlikely
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Jamal Meliani (Societe Generale SA)

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