Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- April FOMC minutes may open door to a hike before the end of the summer, but not point to June as explicitly as Oct. 2015 minutes pointed to Dec. increase, Steven Englander, Citigroup head of G-10 FX strategy writes in note received today.

• To signal a Fed rate increase is being considered, FOMC’s April minutes may say something like “many participants thought a further hike would be appropriate by end summer”
  • Such wording would be good enough to take June rate hike probability to about 25%, July 55%, Sept. 65% and Dec. above 100%
  • If so, asset markets will still be pressured, but without June risk getting bloated
• Possible there will be aggressive EM and fixed income market selling through today, reflecting extent to which any June raising had been priced out: Englander
• NOTE: FOMC April 27 meeting minutes due 02:00pm EST