Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Italy to sell 3.5% 03/2030 for EU0.5b-1b; 1.45% 09/2022 for EU2b-EU2.5b, and 0.3% 10/2018 for EU1.5-2b at 11am CET; 3Y to benefit from ECB outlook, 7Y offers little concession, 15Y looks rich, according to analysts.

• UniCredit (Luca Cazzulani)
  • 3Y may benefit from liquidity parking, in context of QE and rising excess liquidity; given recent curve steepening, bond is cheapen than usual vs BTP 05/2018
  • 09/2022 has cheapened vs 08/2021 in yield, z-spread; will be tapped once more, before new issue in mid-March
  • Demand at extra-long end is healthy at the moment, as seen in launch of new 30Y BTP; 15Y area has richened vs wings, would prefer to own 30Y

• SocGen (Marc-Henri Thoumin)
  • 3Y BTP offers limited value relative to curve; prospect of further ECB easing next month is supportive; short maturities also more protected in risk-off environment
  • Limited value in 09/2022 issue, has seen no pre-auction concession
  • 15Y issues looks rich on curve; after recent performance, expect limited interest in this bond

• BNP (Ioannis Sokos)
  • Size of auctions is relatively small, given recent 30Y syndication
  • BTPs have underperformed SPGBs on concerns over European banks, deficiencies in Italian “bad bank” plan; too early for long-BTP/short-Spain, 10Y spread around middle of recent range
  • 7Y issue offers pickup of 18bps vs 12/2021, while 3Y looks attractive vs 02/19s

• Barclays (Huw Worthington)
  • 3Y trades at roll discount of ~3.6bps, which looks cheap; cross-market, has cheapened 22bps vs Germany, back at 6-mo. wides
  • 09/2022 trades at roll discount of 4.5bps, which looks rich vs prior rolls; cross-market, has cheapened 34bps vs Germany, back at 6-mo. wides
  • Long-end BTP is at rich levels on curve; also looks expensive cross-market vs Spain