AUCTION PREVIEW: Analysts Cautious on SPGB Supply
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Jaime Costero (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA)
Jens Sorensen (Danske Bank A/S)
Jose Fernandez (Banco Santander SA)
Jose Fernandez Sepulveda (Banco Santander SA)
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UUID: 7947283
(Bloomberg) -- Spain to auction 0.25% 01/2019, 1.3% 10/2026, 2.9% 10/2046 for a combined EU3.5b-4.5b as well as I/L 1% 10/2030 for EU250m-750m at 10:30am CET.
Alert: HALISTER1- Mixed views from analysts; political risk, recent gains in SPGBs have most analysts looking at curve and cross-market trades
- SocGen (Marc-Henri Thoumin)
- 3y has underperformed longer-dated issues through recent 2s5s flattening, as quest for yield continues, PSPP feeds flattening forces; don’t expect a reversal just now
- 10y issue offers a good pick-up vs 2022 sector, which may help demand
- 30Y has remained stable, offers limited value relative to the curve; expect modest interest in this bond
- Danske Bank (Jens Peter Sorensen)
- Expect decent demand for 3Y, still solid spread to core bonds; linker bond also likely to go well given focus on rising inflation in the autumn
- Difficult to see demand for the 30Y bond; possible change in the ultimate forward rate for European life insurance companies could give a boost to 30Y bonds such as Spain
- Value in moving out into 10Y sector, given significant roll-down on the Spanish curve between 5Y, 10Y
- Valuations vs Italy still stretched, even after repricing over past few days
- Santander (José María Fernández)
- Auction offers good opportunity to switch into the 01/2019 SPGB and out of very expensive 10/2018 SPGB in ASW terms
- 30y SPGB/bund spread stands ~7bps wider than the level that would be consistent with current 10y spread; like owning the 10/2046 SPGB in a box trade vs. 01/2029 SPGB with 10/2046 DBR and 07/2028 DBR
- 10Y bonds could outperform Italy in the short run, however potential gains likely to be limited
- Mizuho (Antoine Bouvet)
- Spain has been a notable underperformer vs Italy ahead of supply, parliamentary votes; see support outright around 1% in 10Y yields
- Least optimistic around 3Y sale as yields have retreated to the –0.10% area but still offer less carry than BTP equivalent
- 30Y SPGB expensive in the 20s30s Spain/Italy box; smaller than normal auction size leaves open possibility of a syndication as soon as next week (most likely 15Y) if sentiment recovers
- BBVA (Jaime Costero)
- SPGB have rallied over summer, with some small correction seen ahead of auction; see little scope for SPGBs to rally further in comparative terms, for the time being
- Auction bonds might be better bought within intra-curve trades
- 3Y has clearly underperformed neighboring 04/2019 and 10/2018 bonds, showing further concession ahead of auction; now looks cheap vs fitted curve
- 10Y has traded in line with neighbors, although repo pricing has richened; cross-market has cheapened vs both DBRs, BTPs although prefer to take a neutral stance
- Ultra-long SPGBs have made a timid correction after recent flattening; bond looks comparatively cheap va fitted curve in 30Y sector, attractive in the switch vs 07/2040
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Jaime Costero (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA)
Jens Sorensen (Danske Bank A/S)
Jose Fernandez (Banco Santander SA)
Jose Fernandez Sepulveda (Banco Santander SA)
To de-activate this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283