AUCTION PREVIEW: Curve Concession to Support Belgium Supply
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Elia Lattuga (UniCredit SpA)
Marc-Henri Thoumin (Societe Generale SA)
Martin Van Vliet (ING Groep NV)
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UUID: 7947283
(Bloomberg) -- Belgium to sell 1% 06/2026, 1% 06/2031, 4.25% 03/2041 for EU2.2-EU2.8b at 11:30am CET. Analysts see decent curve concession across all issues.
Alert: HALISTER1- Mizuho (Antoine Bouvet)
- All three bonds have underperformed on fitted curve heading into the supply; 03/2041 issue may face some competition for demand with Germany 30Y auction on Feb. 24
- SocGen (Marc-Henri Thoumin)
- 10Y OLO has underperformed shorter-dated neighbors ahead of the auction, 5s10s looks steep, directionality suggests that risk appetite ahead of March ECB may feed some curve flattening
- 15Y sector has seen good concession on the curve, 01/2041 bond has been stable; further stabilization of risk sentiment should favor some curve flattening ahead
- UniCredit (Elia Lattuga)
- 10Y BGB has attractive roll of 12.5bps vs 03/2026; 15Y BGB looks cheap vs. 03/2028, offering largest yield pickup in 3-months at 9.5bps
- BGB 03/2041 attractive on barbell on vs. 06/2045, 06/2038, trades at the top of range from last 3-mo.
- ING (Martin Van Vliet)
- Long-end issue has cheapened up significantly on the fly vs 03/2035, 06/2045 since the end of last year, near cheapest levels of past 12-mo.
- 10Y trades with ~1bp concession to the curve; 15Y Belgium is only OLO trading below par, offers pick-up to OATs of ~3bps, near middle of historical range
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Elia Lattuga (UniCredit SpA)
Marc-Henri Thoumin (Societe Generale SA)
Martin Van Vliet (ING Groep NV)
To de-activate this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283