HALISTER1: AUCTION PREVIEW: Demand For Duration, Month-End Supply 30Y DBR

AUCTION PREVIEW: Demand For Duration, Month-End Supply 30Y DBR

(Bloomberg) -- Germany to Sell 2.5% 07/2044 for EU1b at 11:30am CET. Analysts optimistic on the sale, given demand in the market for long-dated core bonds, recent improvement in auction metrics.
  • Mizuho (Antoine Bouvet)
    • Optimistic on sale; heavy SSA supply in long-end highlights healthy demand for the sector; upcoming index extensions are also supportive factors
    • Bond has cheapened in RV vs 08/2046 since the turn of the year
  • Commerzbank (Michael Leister)
    • Supply should be well digested; ultra-long sector remains in demand; 30Y bund-ASW remains at widest level Oct.
    • 30y bund auctions have seen steady, pronounced improvement in auction metrics, real bid/covers of past 30Y auctions average 1.1x, tails 5.7c
    • RV not compelling, bond trades at richest levels since September 2014 vs 08/2046
  • SocGen (Marc-Henri Thoumin)
    • Recommend 15s30s bund flatteners; curve has steepened ~10bps since early April, 15Y point looks rich relative to curve
    • Expect post auction richening as supply pressure in long-end to fade
  • Danske Bank (Anders Moller Lumholtz)
    • Demand for long bunds at latest auctions has improved, expect the same to apply to this tap
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Anders Lumholtz (Danske Bank A/S)
Anders Moeller Lumholtz (Danske Bank A/s)
Marc-Henri Thoumin (Societe Generale SA)
Michael Leister (Commerzbank AG)

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