HALISTER1: AUCTION PREVIEW: ECB QE, Micro RV Concession Supports Bund Tap

AUCTION PREVIEW: ECB QE, Micro RV Concession Supports Bund Tap

(Bloomberg) -- Germany to sell EU4b 0.5% 02/2026 at 11:30am CET; bond scarcity concerns amid ECB QE buying, cheapening in micro RV seen as supportive, lack of specialness in repo seen as a negative.
  • Mizuho (Antoine Bouvet)
    • Bond has cheapened in micro RV to historically cheap lvls, showing healthy concession
    • Auction to benefit from worsening bond scarcity due by ECB QE purchases, rising political risks in Euro zone
  • Commerzbank (Benjamin Schroeder)
    • Despite recent yield rise, still well below 0.3% seen at last 10y reopening
    • Prospect of another 12-months of ECB QE purchases at the increased pace should keep yields better anchored
    • 5s10s curve is ~53bps, when 10Y yields were at this lvl last year, curve was ~30bps flatter
  • ING (Martin van Vliet)
    • Auction bond traded only 10bps special in repo (S-N) recently, well below the levels seen before the previous two taps in Feb. and Mar., a negative for the auction
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
2539Z GR (European Central Bank)

People
Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Benjamin Schroeder (Commerzbank AG)
Martin Van Vliet (ING Groep NV)

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