HALISTER1: AUCTION PREVIEW: German 30Y Sale Draws Optimism as Demand Seen

AUCTION PREVIEW: German 30Y Sale Draws Optimism as Demand Seen

(Bloomberg) -- Germany to sell EU1b 2.5% 08/2046 at 11:30am CET; analysts generally optimistic on the sale, despite poor track record.
  • Prior real bid/covers for 30Y auctions: 1.3x, 1.0x, 0.8x
  • Tails: 6c, 11c, 15c
  • Mizuho (Antoine Bouvet)
    • Little concession seen either on the 30Y roll or in 10s30s; expect the tap to go well given bond’s performance, specialness on repo suggests interest in the bond
  • BNP (Patrick Jacq)
    • 30Y bund auction likely to show firm demand for EGBs, despite the very low yields
  • Commerzbank (David Schnautz)
    • Recent auctions of the bond have been technically uncovered, often a bad omen; auctions in other maturities have been improving, which offers some hope
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
David Schnautz (Commerzbank AG)
Patrick Jacq (BNP Paribas SA)

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