HALISTER1: AUCTION PREVIEW: Rich Valuation May Weigh on Germany 30y Sale

AUCTION PREVIEW: Rich Valuation May Weigh on Germany 30y Sale

(Bloomberg) -- Germany to sell 2.5% 2046 bund for EU1b at 11:30am CET in first auction of long-dated notes this year; SocGen, JPMorgan see valuations as expensive.
  • SocGen (Vincent Chaigneau)
  • Sees limited interest on 2046 bund at sale, which is “rich” relative to curve and comparables such as DSLs as longer-dated bunds have been more resilient to bearish pressure than shorter maturities in past week
  • JPMorgan (Gianluca Salford)
    • 2046 bund “slightly dear” at current valuation with spread over July 2044 note narrowing to 2bps from 5bps
    • JPMorgan has 10s30s steepener recommendation on German bunds
  • Commerzbank (Michael Leister, Bernhard Gruenaeugl)
    • Substantial short base of 2046 note and current tight swap spreads should ensure demand at sale
    • Reiterate view that 10y sector offers better value on the curve via a 2s10s30s fly, even with 10s-30s trading at the steepest level in at least two years
  • Mizuho (Peter Chatwell, Antoine Bouvet)
    • 10s30s steepness is reflection of “more cautious tone from investors toward duration risk heading into a rise in headline inflation and the (misplaced) fear of an earlier tapering of PSPP”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Vincent Chaigneau (Societe Generale SA)
Antoine Bouvet (Mizuho Financial Group Inc)
Bernhard Gruenaeugl (Commerzbank AG)
Gianluca Salford (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
Michael Leister (Commerzbank AG)

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