HALISTER1: AUD/USD May Rise to Test 100-DMA if 1Q GDP Beats Est.: Analysis

AUD/USD May Rise to Test 100-DMA if 1Q GDP Beats Est.: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- AUD/USD may revisit 100-DMA at 0.7350 if 1Q GDP tomorrow beats upwardly-revised forecasts following strong exports data today, writes Bloomberg strategist Michael G Wilson.
  • 1Q GDP probably gained 2.8% y/y vs prev 3.0%, according to median est. of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg; range of ests. 2.4% to 3.2%; data due tomorrow at 11:30am local
    • Economists raised their forecasts for 1Q GDP growth to 2.8% y/y and 0.8% q/q from prev. 2.7% and 0.6% resp. following release of higher-than-expected 1Q net exports
  • Rise in corporate credit and building approvals data today may suggest national incomes may turnaround soon
    • Corporate credit climbed 7.4% in April from year ago, the most since Jan. 2009 and outpacing growth in mortgage lending for the first time in 7 yrs
  • China releases May manufacturing PMI shortly before Aust. 1Q GDP is scheduled
    • Data may overshadow Aust. GDP as traders gauge the health of the world’s second largest economy
    • China May manufacturing PMI est. 50.0 vs prev. 50.1
  • NOTE: Michael Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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