Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- AUD/USD may extend this month’s rally and test resistance at 0.7719, the high on May 3, in the near-term if Australian payrolls beat forecast, Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty writes.

• June employment is expected to rise by 10k jobs, with unemployment rate climbing to 5.8% from 5.7%, according to median ests. of economists in survey; data due July 14 at 11:30am local
• The FX pair has recouped post-Brexit losses of almost 4%, supported by several factors:
  • Smaller probability of Fed tightening this year; on June 1, there was a 76% chance of a hike by Dec.; now it’s near 34%
  • Lack of an explicit easing bias in the RBA’s July policy statement
  • NAB business confidence and conditions, with both showing better June sentiment despite uncertain outcomes for Brexit vote and Australian election
• Higher-than-forecast payrolls may further reduce pricing for an RBA cut in Aug., which has fallen from 59% at the beginning of this month to near 45% now
• AUD/USD’s MACD remains bullish with reading above zero and signal line
• Slow stochastics are bullish with %D reading of 72 and rising; FX pair is steady at 0.7620
• NOTE: David Finnerty is an FX strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice.