Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Market forces are lining up against the Australian dollar, and a weaker-than-expected jobs report could send the currency tumbling through a key support that has held since June, writes Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson.

• AUD/USD has dropped more than 2.5% since Trump won election, weighed by a selloff in developed-market bonds and a surge in the U.S. dollar to nearly a 1-year high
• With AUD/USD now at 0.7557, the 200-DMA at 0.7510 is in play; below that, the next key support is almost 70 pts away at 0.7442
• Australian employers probably added a net 15k jobs in October after shedding 9.8k in September, according to median est. in Bloomberg survey; range of ests. -3k to +40k; data due Thursday at 11:30am local
• Unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 5.7% from 5.6%
• RBA will watch not only the headline numbers but the balance between full-time and part-time jobs; an erosion in full- time roles has fed worries about wage growth, as flagged in the bank’s recent quarterly statement on policy
• After the jobs data, the Aussie’s next major catalyst is testimony from Janet Yellen, also Thursday; if the Fed chair fails to halt Dollar Index’s approach to long-term highs at 100.33, as noted by Citigroup, then chances of further AUD/USD losses would increase
• NOTE: Michael G. Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.