Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- AUD/USD could test 50-DMA at 0.7584 if August full-time jobs rebound from a nearly three-year low and halt 2016’s downward trend, writes Bloomberg analyst Michael Wilson.

• Full-time roles fell by 46.1k in July, and for 2016 so far, all net job creation has been part-time; such positions spiked by 71.6k in July, most in seven years
• Dominance of part-time suggests slack in labor market, and wage pressures needed to lift inflation toward RBA’s goal may be missing, analysts said after July report
• Downward revisions have been made to full-time jobs component in 8 of last 10 data releases while 12-month moving average of part-time work is at highest since 2010
• For August, employers probably added a total of 15k full and part-time jobs, based on median estimate of 26 economists in Bloomberg survey; forecast range is 18k losses to 45k additions (prior revised +25.3k); unemployment rate est. 5.7% (prior 5.7%); data due at 11:30am Sydney
• Should full-time component rebound, AUD/USD may gain, helped by weaker expectations for U.S. rate hike since Fed Gov. Brainard’s comments Monday; Fed now in blackout until FOMC
• AUD/USD up 0.1% to 0.7474; a close above 50-DMA sets up a test of trend-line resistance adjacent to 0.7732, Sept. 8 high
• NOTE: Michael Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.