Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- A series of AUD/USD triple tops near 0.7750 may be revisited by end-Sept if 3Q GDP beats estimates and new RBA governor Philip Lowe fails to jawbone Aussie lower in response, writes Bloomberg strategist, Michael G Wilson.

• Spot has formed a solid base off 0.7490 100-DMA, which is also August 31 low
  • Triple tops comprise of 0.7756/50/49 highs in Aug.
  • Slow stochastic momentum indicator at 34 and climbing
  • AUD/USD currently +0.20% at 0.7597
• 3Q GDP probably gained 3.2% y/y vs. prev. 3.1%, according to median est. of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg; ests. ranged from 3.0% to 3.5%; data due tomorrow at 11:30am local
• Incoming RBA Governor Lowe will deliver introductory remarks on Thursday
  • In March 2016, Lowe said “I think, like everyone, we would welcome a slightly lower exchange rate” to help with rebalancing of economy; AUD/USD was trading at 0.7455 back then
  • When asked in Dec. 2012 about threshold for unconventional monetary policy, Lowe said hypothetically it would be ’around 1 percent, plus or minus a bit,’; policy rate then was double the current 1.5%
• A GDP data beat may push any chance of an RBA cut into 2Q17
• Fed pricing in wake of NFP has been dialed back; likewise, a host of forecasters who’d called for a September Fed hike
  • See Research Roundup
• NOTE: Michael Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.