Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Haven buying of A$ ahead of Brexit vote may lessen any dip reaction in A$ if Australia added less jobs than expected in May, Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson writes.

• Aussie may be the best AAA rated and far removed port available in the oncoming Fed, BOJ and Brexit/Eurozone risk storm
• Australia likely created net 15k jobs, up from a revised 10.6k in April, according to median est. of 25 forecasts in Bloomberg survey; range of ests. from -7k to +35k; data due at 11:30am local
• Unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 5.7%
• GBP/AUD has fallen 7.7% from 2.0534 May 26 high, closed below 1.9417 50% Fibonacci retracement low on Friday
  • However still short of triple bottom near 1.8300 on April 21
• U.K. referendum should keep this cross bid and supportive of AUD/USD through the legs
• GBP/AUD 1-month risk reversals at record negative skew
  • 1-month volatility at 24.9%, its highest since GFC
• Leveraged funds’ A$ positioning flipped from long to short last week, may see muted reaction on a data miss as this client segment already short: CFTC data shows
• Risk to view may be BOJ easing later on Thursday, which could see USD catch a bid, thus weakening the Aussie
• AUD/USD down 0.3% to 0.7335
• NOTE: Michael G. Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.