HALISTER1: Aussie May Test August High If Jobs Overcome Rotation: Analysis

Aussie May Test August High If Jobs Overcome Rotation: Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Recent AUD/USD triple top may be breached if tomorrow’s jobs data can survive rotational sampling to beat estimates, Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson writes.
  • The last of two large increases to the 8-month sample set will rotate out of the employment-change data that’s released Thursday at 11:30am Sydney time
    • October 2015 headlined at 58.6k and was revised down to 46.9k
    • November 2015 came in at 71.4k, revised next month to 73.1k
  • NAB senior economist David de Garis, who’s the top-ranked forecaster of Australia’s unemployment rate, says this could affect the end result by up to 20k jobs
  • NAB’s forecast of 12k added jobs and unemployment rate of 5.8% include provision for this factor: De Garis
  • Median est. in Bloomberg survey is 10k added jobs in July, after +7.9k in June, based on poll of 26 economists; range: -20k to +30k; unemployment rate is seen holding at 5.8%
  • AUD/USD is steady at 0.7695
  • NOTE: Michael G. Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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David De Garis (National Australia Bank Ltd)

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