Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- AUD/USD could test trendline resistance near 0.7700 if September’s full-time job creation and participation rate rebound, writes Bloomberg strategist Michael G. Wilson.

• Median est. in Bloomberg survey is for 15k added jobs, after a 3.9k contraction in Aug., based on poll of 27 economists; range: -7.4k to +30k; unemployment rate is seen ticking higher to 5.7% from 5.6%; RBA’s Lowe estimated on Tuesday that full employment would be 5%
  • Data due Thursday, 11:30am Sydney
• August’s participation rate of 64.7% was below the five-year average of 64.9%, and investors will watch for any improvement
• The quality of new jobs will also be important: Growth in full-time positions over the last 12 months is just a quarter of what it was a year earlier, which may herald weaker consumption, according to Bloomberg Intelligence
• Yellen’s comments last week about possibly allowing U.S. economy to “run hot” have prompted carry-trade inflows, further underpinning AUD
• AUD/USD is up 0.3% to 0.7685 after adding 0.5% overnight
• Minutes of October RBA meeting cited reasonable prospects for growth and waning headwinds from the drop in mining investment
• NOTE: Michael G. Wilson is an FX strategist who writes for First Word. The observations he makes are his own.