HALISTER1: Avoid Mexican Consumer Firms Amid Gasolinazo, CPI Risk: Itau

Avoid Mexican Consumer Firms Amid Gasolinazo, CPI Risk: Itau

(Bloomberg) -- Alsea, Liverpool and Bimbo removed from IBBAMex model portfolio at Itau as Trump win and “gasolinazo” drive increased uncertainty for Mexico that’s “unlikely” to dissipate soon, analysts led by Gregorio Tomassi write in Jan. 17 note.
  • Mexican gasolinazo will “materially” hurt consumption, siphoning away as much as 1.9% from Mexicans’ household expenses, Itau says
  • Other risks for sector include increased inflation expectations for 2017 based on Banamex survey and bond market’s implied inflation amid gasolinazo and peso depreciation
  • Itau adds Chedraui, Televisa to model portfolio
  • Recommends building overweight exposure in sectors “most severely punished by market,” including financials with Banorte and Santander Mexico, and real estate with overweight in Fibra Uno
  • Also suggests new overweight in materials, with overweight in Alpek on prospect for higher oil prices
  • Adds equalweight in Grupo Mexico as it stands to benefit from opening of Mexico’s gasoline industry
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
ALPEKA MM (Alpek SAB de CV)
ALSEA* MM (Alsea SAB de CV)
LIVEPOL1 MM (El Puerto de Liverpool SAB de CV)
FUNO11 MM (Fibra Uno Administracion SA de CV)
BIMBOA MM (Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV)

People
Gregorio Tomassi (Itau Unibanco Holding SA)

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