HALISTER1: Barclays Favors EU Large Cap Pharma, Says AstraZeneca Top Pick

Barclays Favors EU Large Cap Pharma, Says AstraZeneca Top Pick

(Bloomberg) -- Barclays initiates coverage of large cap EU pharma stocks with “resoundingly positive view,” according to a note.
  • Says political and pricing concerns have created a favorable entry point, and companies have appealing valuations, R&D in a “transformational era”
  • Sees scope for double-digit returns, and little scope for radical negative legislative action in US and European markets
  • Clear preference among EU large cap pharma for specialty- focus and growth in the context of a strong-catalyst driven thematic (AstraZeneca, Roche) or deep value (Shire); all rated overweight
  • Top pick AstraZeneca (PT GBP60); sees 2017 as the nadir, recommends investors don’t wait for growth inflection in 2018
    • Sees a “near zero” risk of total Mystic trial failure, while suite of pipeline assets is broad with many due to deliver key news in 2017
    • Return to growth in 2018 will come regardless of Mystic trial
  • Expects relative underperformance from primary-care exposed players with challenged pipeline and/or cliff outlooks, such as Sanofi, Novo Nordisk and Novartis, all rated underweight
    • Glaxo is Barclays’ only equalweight

Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

Tickers
AZN LN (AstraZeneca PLC)
GSK LN (GlaxoSmithKline PLC)
NOVN VX (Novartis AG)
NOVOB DC (Novo Nordisk A/S)
ROG VX (Roche Holding AG)

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