Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Even though statement published with last week’s Copom decision, which was the 1st under Goldfajn’s leadership, was more rich in details than previous versions, a new meeting minutes format may better reflect committee’s debate on decision day.

• Minutes due tomorrow at 7:30 a.m. E.T.
• The fact that statement was longer and more detailed reduces minutes’ potential impact, but doesn’t mute their significance, says Carlos Kawall, Banco Safra chief economist
  • “The minutes may be more clear considering the whole scenario, inflation risk, fiscal issues and activity”
  • “The document may be shorter and more focused on bringing insight on debate that occurred during the meeting”
  • BCB’s director Carlos Vianna worked at Fed, and new minutes may reflect his experience there
• Solange Srour, chief economist of ARX Investimentos, says that these minutes may bring ’’more transparency on internal debates when compared to previous ones’’
  • “If BCB is focused on improving its communication, it has to present more information from internal debates”
  • Minutes are the most important local factor, even though their content may have been partially seen on statement
  • “As there will be a significant change in format, we will need to look in detail at the risk descriptions seen on statement”
• NOTE: In July 20 statement, the BCB said its 2017 CPI forecast considering the base case scenario was near 4.5% target; 2017 market scenario forecast was near 5.3%
• NOTE: Statement says that base case scenario and current risk conditions don’t allow for a monetary policy easing; Selic was kept at 14.25% on July 20