HALISTER1: BCB Minutes Show No Room for Rate Cut in the Near Term: Analysts

BCB Minutes Show No Room for Rate Cut in the Near Term: Analysts

(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s central bank reiterated in minutes there is no room for monetary easing, and nearest rate cut isn’t expected until second half of the year, analysts say.
  • BCB suggested easing may occur near end of 2016, though the central bank may be under new management, which makes rate cuts hard to predict, Daniel Cunha, macro strategist at XP Securities in Nova York, says in an e-mailed interview
    • Central bank minutes were “relatively hawkish”; despite recognizing some improvement in inflation, the bank reiterated CPI levels are still high
  • Minutes reinforce idea of no room for monetary flexibility, says Thais Zara, chief economist at Rosenberg Consultores Associados
    • Besides inflation concerns, BCB also warned about fiscal expansionary trend; room for cuts possible only at Aug. 31 Copom meeting
  • While minutes signal no cut in short term, BCB cited arguments that may favor cuts in 2nd half, Camila Abdelmalack, economist at CM Capital says
    • BRL gains, output gap favoring slower CPI are among positive factors for inflation
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Daniel Cunha (XP Investimentos CCTVM SA)
Camila Abdelmalack (Cm Capital Markets Corretora De Cambio Titulo E Valores Mobiliarios Ltda)
Thais Zara (Rosenberg Consultores Associados)

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