BCB PREVIEW:Goldfajn 1st Copom to Have Steady Rate, Hawkish Tone
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
Ilan Goldfajn (Banco Central do Brasil)
Caio Megale (Itau Unibanco Holding SA)
Joao Ribeiro (Nomura Holdings Inc)
Luciano Rostagno (Banco Mizuho do Brasil SA)
Solange Srour (Arx Investimentos)
To de-activate this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283
(Bloomberg) -- Analysts expect BCB to repeat hawkish tone in Ilan Goldfajn’s 1st meeting as central bank chief.
Alert: HALISTER1- Traders pricing in rate cuts starting in Oct.; more intense in Dec., Jan.
- NOTE: Brazil’s benchmark Selic rate has been kept at 14.25% since last July
- Mkt to look for sentence in statement which says there’s no room for rate cuts at this moment, ARX Chief Economist Solange Srour says
- If sentence is eliminated, it will open possibility of rate cut in Aug.
- Sentence likely to remain w/additional information such as reference to improvement in inflation expectations
- Itau, Nomura and Mizuho see BCB maintaining the sentence
- BCB likely to wait until fiscal measure results are set before cutting rates, Itau says in report signed by Caio Megale and Laura Pitta
- Nomura sees bigger risk of cut being delayed beyond Oct. rather than being moved forward, according to report signed by Joao Pedro Ribeiro
- BCB expected to be cautious; new directors can lead to statement style change, says Mizuho Chief Strategist Luciano Rostagno
- Goldfajn recent comments:
- From June 28: Suggested it’s too early to think about cutting rates as inflation remains above target and the govt has yet to implement budget cuts
- From July 7: CPI Still Far From Goal; FX Swap Also in Focus
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)
People
Ilan Goldfajn (Banco Central do Brasil)
Caio Megale (Itau Unibanco Holding SA)
Joao Ribeiro (Nomura Holdings Inc)
Luciano Rostagno (Banco Mizuho do Brasil SA)
Solange Srour (Arx Investimentos)
To de-activate this alert, click here
UUID: 7947283