HALISTER1: Brazil Market Remains Unconvinced on Post-Impeachment Gains

Brazil Market Remains Unconvinced on Post-Impeachment Gains

(Bloomberg) -- BRL, Brazil stocks are unlikely to budge much after Senate’s final vote to impeach the since-May suspended President Rousseff, according to analysts.
  • While BRL’s earlier rally reflected expectations that impeachment bid will pass, the currency is unlikely to surge, Jason Vieira, chief-economist at Infinity Asset Management, says in a phone interview
  • “Impeachment process has been a hallmark of the rally in Brazilian assets because it represents the recognition that policy direction must change,” Mike Moran, the head of economic research for the Americas at Standard Chartered, says
    • “That said, a lot of the good news from this transition is priced in since January this year, so we expect any incremental gains will likely be more modest”
    • “With some 59 senators or more supporting a conviction, the market has already positioned itself for a removal of Dilma,” Per Hammarlund, chief EM strategist at SEB, says
  • U.S. ADP jobs report is seen as positive by Infinity’s Vieira; however, it fails to change his bet that Fed will hike only in December
    • “American inflation remains very low. Fed does not want a strong impact on dollar”
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

People
Jason Vieira (Infinity Asset Management Administracao de Recursos)
Dilma Rousseff (Federative Republic of Brazil)
Mike Moran (Standard Chartered PLC)
Per Hammarlund (Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB)

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