HALISTER1: Brazil Real at 3.00/USD Seen Unsustainable in Longer Run:Haitong

Brazil Real at 3.00/USD Seen Unsustainable in Longer Run:Haitong

(Bloomberg) -- (Machine translation provided by Google and reviewed by Bloomberg editors.)
  • The stronger factor of appreciation of the real is the positive scenario for Brazil, and the BRL could test 3.00/USD level in the very short term, but if that happens, it will not last long, says Flavio Serrano, senior economist at Haitong Bank, in interview by phone.
  • In the second half of the year, favorable elements to the real lose strength and currency tends to have a correction
    • Growth should be stronger in Brazil and high interest rates in the U.S. should begin at the end of the first semester
    • Most doubt is how positive would be the impact on market stemming from the approval of the pension reform
  • In the short-term, real continues to be favored by the “important changes in economic policy orientation” and flow
    • We perceive flow in fixed income and variable income
    • Haitong expects US $ 10 billion in foreign direct investment in January
    • Carry is favorable for real to have good performance
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Flavio Serrano (Haitong Bank SA)

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