Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- Brazilian swap market is pricing in a cut of 91bps in Selic rate, which implies higher chances of the BCB maintaining the 100bps easing pace than decelerating it to 75bps in July 26.

• Inflation scenario opens room for stronger action by the central bank, even with political crisis leading to increased doubts about pension reform

• June CPI expected to drop -0.18% m/m, first deflation since 2006, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg; data to be released on Friday
• Falling current inflation and improved expectations led Brazil monetary council last week to reduce CPI targets to 4.25% in 2019 and 4% in 2020
• Council’s recent decision also helps to reduce structural inflation, adding room for BCB to maintain easing pace, Banco Fibra’s Cristiano Oliveira says
• If by the next BCB meeting the political scene doesn’t get worse, a 100bps cut is likely, Infinity Chief Economist Jason Vieira says
  • From now until the end of the month, we’ll have CPI data, the possibility of the approval of the labor bill and we can start to talk again about pension reform

Original Story: Mercado assume aposta majoritária em corte de 1 pp da Selic To contact the translator on this story: Giulia Camillo in Sao Paulo at gcamillo@bloomberg.net Reporters on the original story: Josue Leonel in Sao Paulo at jleonel@bloomberg.net; Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net Editor responsible for the original story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net