Halister News

(Bloomberg) -- A slowdown in Brazil’s 2Q economic activity was highly expected after surprising numbers in 1Q driven by agriculture sector, according to analysts consulted by Bloomberg. Brazil might expect an incipient growth in the 2H as the almost 3-year long recession indicates its end. 

• 2Q GDP will probably stay between -0.1% and 0.2%, close to stability, Quantitas Gestao de Recursos chief economist Ivo Chermont says in interview
  • Economic recovery is going to be gradual; unemployment, real income have already started to show some improvement
• IBC-BR data is not surprising and comes in line with expectations, economy should gain strength in 2H, Haitong Bank economist Flavio Serrano says in interview
  • "Worse is behind us; Brazil is likely not to have negative GDP anymore"
• Recent soft and hard data give us confidence that after an 11-quarter long recession, the economy likely reached an inflection point during 1Q, Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos in emailed report
  • However, growth is expected to remain weak and volatile throughout 2017 given high policy and political uncertainty and a number of other structural factors
• NOTE: Brazil June Economic Activity +0.50% M/m; Est. +0.7%

To contact the reporter on this story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Danielle Chaves