HALISTER1: Brazil’s Temer Holds 55% Chance of Finishing Term in 2018: BMI

Brazil’s Temer Holds 55% Chance of Finishing Term in 2018: BMI

(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s President Michel Temer will most likely survive the corruption scandal challenging his administration, which will support the passage of watered-down reforms and a continuation of the country’s modest economic rebound, says BMI Research in report.
  • Reforms will buoy investor sentiment and support a modest economic recovery in 2017, broadly in line with BMI forecast for real GDP growth of 0.5%
  • Nonetheless, Temer’s presidency remains at significant risk due to the electoral court challenge
    • An unfavourable ruling would generate extended uncertainty and economic downside
  • A split between PSDB party and the government seems unlikely to happen
    • Temer is likely to maintain the support of his coalition due to a lack of viable candidates to succeed him
  • There’s scope for weakened reforms to move through Congress
To contact the reporter on this story: Ana Carolina Siedschlag in São Paulo at asiedschlag@bloomberg.net To contact the editors responsible for this story: Daniela Milanese at dmilanese@bloomberg.net Danielle Chaves

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Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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