HALISTER1: BRC Data Shows Less Resilient Consumer, Worst to Come: Pantheon

BRC Data Shows Less Resilient Consumer, Worst to Come: Pantheon

(Bloomberg) -- BRC like-for-like August retail sales data, which came in well below consensus, shows consumer spending is not as resilient as July’s official retail sales implied. Real slowdown lies ahead, Pantheon’s chief U.K. economist Samuel Tombs writes in e-mailed comments.
  • Retail sales growth will probably pick-up again in the near- term, although Pantheon expects a fundamental slowdown in volumes growth next year
    • Retailers will pass on the rise in import prices to consumers and firms will still be holding back from hiring due to uncertainty about the U.K.’s future trading relationships
  • Official ONS data has been stronger than BRC readings for the last four months; BRC will probably not preclude sharp m/m fall in August
Alert: HALISTER1
Source: BFW (Bloomberg First Word)

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Samuel Tombs (Pantheon MacRoeconomics Inc)

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